{"id":4937,"date":"2025-10-01T08:44:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T08:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/riyasatnamanews.in\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/rbi-fy26-gdp-growth-inflation-projections\/"},"modified":"2025-10-01T08:44:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T08:44:08","slug":"rbi-fy26-gdp-growth-inflation-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/riyasatnamanews.in\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/rbi-fy26-gdp-growth-inflation-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI Upgrades FY26 GDP Growth to 6.8%, Lowers Inflation to 2.6%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has upgraded its GDP growth projection for the fiscal year 2025-26 to <strong>6.8 percent<\/strong> and lowered its inflation forecast to <strong>2.6 percent<\/strong>. This decision, reported on Wednesday, comes in response to the impacts of an above-normal monsoon and recent adjustments in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates.<\/p>\n<p>In August, the RBI had anticipated a GDP growth rate of <strong>6.5 percent<\/strong> for the current fiscal year, alongside an inflation estimate of <strong>3.1 percent<\/strong>. Governor Sanjay Malhotra, announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, attributed the revision to significant domestic developments amid global economic changes. He highlighted that the Indian economy has shown resilience, reflecting a growth uptick in the first quarter of 2025-26.<\/p>\n<p>Malhotra noted, \u201cBuoyed by good monsoon, the Indian economy continues to exhibit strength. There has been a considerable moderation in headline inflation.\u201d He explained that the rationalisation of GST rates likely contributes to lowering inflation while also stimulating consumption.<\/p>\n<p>However, Malhotra cautioned that U.S. tariffs could have a restraining effect on exports. He stated, \u201cTaking all these factors into account, real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.8 percent, with a breakdown of <strong>7.0 percent in Q2<\/strong>, <strong>6.4 percent in Q3<\/strong>, and <strong>6.2 percent in Q4<\/strong>.\u201d Furthermore, he projected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026-27 at <strong>6.4 percent<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of inflation, Malhotra reported that conditions remain benign throughout 2025-26, with actual inflation figures significantly lower than expectations. A marked decrease in food inflation, aided by enhanced supply prospects and effective supply chain management by the government, primarily drove this low inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Malhotra added, \u201cCore inflation remained largely contained, with the August reading at <strong>4.2 percent<\/strong>, even as prices for precious metals continue to exert pressure.\u201d For the Consumer Price Index (CPI), he provided inflation projections of <strong>2.6 percent<\/strong> for 2025-26, with quarterly expectations of <strong>1.8 percent in Q2<\/strong>, <strong>1.8 percent in Q3<\/strong>, and <strong>4.0 percent in Q4<\/strong>. Additionally, CPI inflation for the first quarter of 2026-27 is expected to be around <strong>4.5 percent<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This revised outlook reflects the RBI&#8217;s proactive approach in responding to changing economic conditions, leveraging favorable climate patterns, and policy adjustments to foster economic stability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Reserve Bank of India has increased its GDP growth projection for FY26 to 6.8% and reduced its inflation estimate to 2.6% amid favorable economic conditions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4937","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-national"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>RBI Upgrades FY26 GDP Growth to 6.8%, Lowers Inflation to 2.6% - 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